Forecast Categories

Forecast categories are the shelves you put deals on. Commit is the shelf you would bet your job on: the deals that will close in the period unless something unforeseeable happens. Best case is the shelf of deals that could close in the period if the things still outstanding go your way. Pipeline is everything else that is qualified and real but not yet close enough to call. The names matter less than the rule for what goes on each shelf.

The question they answer: what number can this team put in front of the board and defend?

The mistake is letting gut feel decide the shelf. A seller puts a deal in commit because they like the Champion, or because the quarter needs it, or because they put it there last month and moving it would prompt a conversation. Then the leader rolls up a number built on forty feelings and calls it a forecast. The miss, when it comes, is treated as bad luck. It was not luck. It was a decision, made without evidence, and it should be judged as one.

How I use it. Each category has an evidence test, and the evidence is MEDDPICC. Nothing goes into commit without a Champion who has passed the test, an Economic Buyer who has engaged, Metrics the customer has agreed, and a Paper Process that physically fits the dates. Best case can have a gap, as long as the gap is named and there is an action against it. The categories then stop being opinions and start being leading indicators. A commit deal with no Economic Buyer is a contradiction in terms, and I would rather see it moved than wait for the quarter to move it for me.